Liquidity & Technical

Figures converted from INR at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, multiples, percentages, share counts, and unitless technical indicators (RSI, volatility %) are unchanged.

Liquidity & Technical

A mid-cap-friendly tape with adequate institutional capacity but a bearish setup. Sagility trades roughly $7.6M per day, supports a five-day full position of approximately $7.25M at 20% participation, and sits in a confirmed post-IPO downtrend — price is 12.6% below the 200-day, the 50/200 death cross fired on 20 March 2026, and the stock has round-tripped from a $0.6518 all-time high last October back to $0.4214 with 30-day realized volatility unusually calm at 26.6% (below the 20th percentile). The grinding, low-volatility decline — not panic selling — is consistent with distribution rather than a flush, a pattern that historically resolves lower before it resolves higher.

1. Portfolio implementation verdict

Sagility offers institutionally implementable liquidity at mid-cap scale — about $7.6M traded per day, enough to build a five-day position of around $7.25M at 20% ADV — but the tape is in a confirmed downtrend with price below all four major moving averages and a recent death cross, so the technical stance is bearish on a 3-to-6 month horizon. The tape feature that matters most: the decline from $0.65 to $0.42 has happened on shrinking realized volatility (now in the calmest 20% of the post-IPO distribution), a profile more consistent with orderly distribution than capitulation — and one that typically lacks the wash-out signature buyers look for at a low.

A note on data: market-cap and share-count fields in the staged liquidity file are missing for Sagility, so position-percent-of-market-cap and supported-AUM figures are derived from raw ADV value and a $2.0B implied capitalization (≈4.68B shares × current price). Treat the AUM-tier ladder as indicative rather than exact.

2. Price snapshot strip

Beta is unavailable for this name — sub-19 months of trading history is too short for a reliable post-IPO beta. The 30-day realized vol stands in as the cleanest single risk measure.

3. Critical chart — price + 50/200-day SMA, full IPO history

Confirmed downtrend regime. Every major moving average (20d $0.4391, 50d $0.4399, 100d $0.4596, 200d $0.4823) sits above the current price. The chart breaks into three phases: a parabolic IPO honeymoon Nov 2024 to Feb 2025 ($0.35 to $0.62), six months of sideways base-building $0.45 to $0.52 through summer 2025, then the leg up to the $0.6518 all-time high on 31 October 2025, followed by the slow grind back down — round-tripping the entire 2025 rally.

4. Relative strength

The relative-performance file ships only the company's rebased series; no benchmark or sector series was captured for this NSE listing. We therefore cannot plot Sagility versus Nifty 50 or a healthcare-services peer basket on this page — only the absolute return picture is reliable. For context: the 1-year return is positive at +2.8%, but the 6-month return is -18.8% and YTD -23.1%, so any "stock is up year-over-year" framing flatters a setup that has materially deteriorated since November.

The return profile — positive 1y, negative every shorter window — is consistent with a stock that has put in a top and is rolling over while the trailing comp window still benefits from the prior advance.

5. Momentum — RSI(14) and MACD histogram

RSI at 39.8 is mid-band — not yet oversold, with room to fall before a technically supported bounce becomes likely. The mid-March 2026 dip pushed RSI to 24, a one-time oversold print that produced the mean-reversion rally to $0.4734 in mid-May. That rally has now failed: RSI has rolled back to 40, MACD histogram has flipped negative again after a brief bullish month, and the MACD line sits at -$0.0050 below a -$0.0028 signal. The momentum setup is consistent with further downside unless RSI prints another sub-30 oversold reading paired with a credible reversal day.

6. Volume, volatility and sponsorship

The spike to 557M shares on 30 October 2025 is far off the right-axis scale and almost certainly a one-year post-IPO lockup release. Volume since the February-March 2026 break has been mid-30s on heavy days and high teens on quiet ones; the most recent leg from $0.4734 back to $0.4214 unfolded on the LIGHTER side of the 50-day band. Distribution on light volume looks calm but lacks the capitulation signature buyers typically wait for before stepping in.

The two extreme volume days — 14.7x on 28 May 2025 and 14.2x on 30 October 2025 — line up with the six-month and twelve-month post-IPO lockup release windows for an IPO that priced 12 November 2024. The May day went down on the spike; the October day went up — but the October close ($0.6146) marked the local top, and the ATH ($0.6518) printed the very next day before the decline began. The pattern is consistent with a large sponsor selling into the run-up, with the buyer providing the spike volume.

The 30-day realized vol at 26.6% is in the calm regime — below the post-IPO 20th-percentile floor of 30.3%. During the mid-March panic dip vol spiked to 51%; today's print is roughly half that, even with price back near the lows. A grinding, low-volatility decline is a classic distribution signature. When the tape rolls over while vol drops, sellers are typically working out of size patiently without buyer-side urgency — a slow leak that historically resolves in a fast move once a catalyst lands.

7. Institutional liquidity panel

This stock is not in the deep-pool tier (mega-cap ADV exceeding $30M); it sits in the mid-cap tradable tier. Funds can take a meaningful position, but execution should be size-aware.

The annual turnover ratio and ADV-as-percentage-of-market-cap fields are missing in the staged liquidity file because share-count and market-cap data did not flow through to the technical pipeline. The raw ADV value ($7.6M) and supported-AUM derivation below are unaffected by this gap.

Fund-capacity table — given the ADV, this shows the maximum fund AUM that can take a position at common weights without exceeding 20% or 10% of ADV over five trading days.

In plain English: at 20% ADV participation, a five-day full position is approximately $7.25M. That comfortably accommodates a $145M fund taking a 5% weight, or a $362M fund at 2%. At a more conservative 10% ADV participation, the supported AUM halves — and a 10% position would only be appropriate for funds up to about $36M, which is too small for most institutional mandates. For typical mid-cap-focused mutual funds and L/S funds in the $200M-$1B range, a 1-3% position is comfortable, a 5% position is achievable with 5-10 trading days of patient execution, and a 10% position is capacity-constrained.

Liquidation runway — the staged file ships these fields as null because issuer-level share counts and market cap did not flow through. The implied runway below uses a working estimate of approximately $2.0B market capitalization, derived from the current price and a disclosed share count of approximately 4.68B.

These row numbers are indicative — the assumed market cap is a working estimate, not the source-of-truth field. A 1% issuer-level position takes roughly 2-3 weeks to exit at 20% participation; a 2% issuer-level position becomes a multi-week execution challenge that pushes into capacity-constrained territory.

Daily-range proxy. The 60-day median intraday range is 3.31%, comfortably above the 2.0% threshold that flags elevated impact cost. Translated: the bid-ask spread plus intraday slippage is meaningful for any block trade. Algorithmic execution over multiple sessions — VWAP-style — will materially beat aggressive same-day fills.

Conclusion for institutional readers. At 20% ADV participation, the largest size that cleanly clears the five-day threshold is approximately $7.25M (around 0.4% of estimated market cap). At a more conservative 10% participation, that halves to about $3.6M. The execution playbook is clear: build over 5-10 days using a patient algo, accept the ~3.3% daily range, and avoid trying to take size in a single session.

8. Technical scorecard + stance

Stance: bearish on a 3-to-6 month horizon, net score -3. The setup resembles a textbook post-IPO distribution: parabolic honeymoon, sideways base, secondary breakout to a fresh high on a lockup-release volume spike, then a methodical decline that has now confirmed via the death cross and is unfolding without the vol expansion typically associated with a flush low. The two levels to watch:

• $0.4823 — a daily close above the 200-day SMA, ideally with the 50-day turning higher behind it, would flip the trend read and support a re-rating to neutral.
• $0.3819 — a daily close below the 52-week low opens the path to a re-test of the IPO area around $0.32, with no significant horizontal support in between.

Liquidity is not the constraint. Institutional participation up to a 5% position at a $145M fund AUM is implementable in five days at 20% ADV; the constraint is the chart, not the order book. For a fundamentally-driven add, the indicated action is watchlist, with a starter position considered only on either a clean reclaim of $0.4823 or a flush below $0.3819 that prints sub-25 RSI alongside a reversal day. Building into the current slow grind risks averaging into a tape where sellers still have the upper hand.